In March, the outer plate price of China's imported broad-leaf pulp rose strongly

March 22, 2024

Zhuo Chuang information: March broad leaf pulp outer disk strong rise, April pulp price downward trend or slow down

 Zhuochuang information Chang Junting Zhuo creation paper 2024-03-15 16:50 Shandong


[Guide] In March, the outer plate price of China's imported broad-leaf pulp rose strongly, breaking the stable situation for three consecutive months. At the same time, due to the positive factors leading the market, the pulp price maintained a strong shock running trend. In April, the supply and demand of the pulp market continue to play, and the cost remains high, but the downstream base paper profit is expected to improve poorly. At the same time, under the restriction of the financial nature of products and the uncertainty of the external transaction, the pulp price is expected to be limited.


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 March broad leaf pulp outer disk from steady to rise


In March, China's imported broad-leaf pulp outer disk prices rose strongly, breaking the steady situation for three consecutive months. Zhuochuang Information monitoring data showed that China's imports of broad-leaved pulp in March rose $30 / ton from the previous month. From the fluctuation characteristics of the outer price of imported broad-leaved pulp in recent years (see Figure 2), the price in March is higher than the historical average level of 7 years. February Brazil exports to China hardwood pulp quantity reduction, spot prices rose, associated pulp needle pulp futures disk and spot market prices, hardwood pulp and needle pulp between the price narrowed, pulp market supply and demand improvement, is the hardwood pulp plate price strong driving factors, but the downstream base paper industry profit low is the main factor of the drag outside disk clinch a deal.





The volume and proportion of Brazil's exports to China declined

 Direct support Brazil broad leaf pulp outside the rise

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of Brazil, the total export of broad-leaved pulp in February was 1.525 million tons, of which 597,000 tons of broad-leaved pulp was exported to China (down 25.28% month on month), and the broad-leaved pulp exported to China accounted for 39.15% of the total export of Brazil, down 11 percentage points compared with January, which played a direct supporting role in the increase of broad-leaved pulp in Brazil.

 Futures disk strong operation, coniferous pulp outer disk prices continuous flat and the price difference between the two narrowed, support broad-leaf pulp outside the disk to rise

 As of March 12, the closing price of the main contract of pulp futures of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6018 yuan / ton, up 134 yuan / ton compared with 5884 yuan / ton at the end of February, driving the average price of imported needle spot pulp in March up 1.83% month on month to 5974.13 yuan / ton, which played a certain supporting role in the rise of broad leaf pulp outside.

At the same time, also can see from figure 3, needle pulp price for two consecutive months flat plate, and from the perspective of the needle pulp, hardwood pulp outside dish price, needle pulp, hardwood pulp outside dish difference for four consecutive months narrowed, march both spread as low as $65 / ton, to promote the price clinch a deal, so the needle pulp prices and the spreads narrow, become march hardwood pulp outside dish reported another supporting factor.





Spot market prices run at high levels

 Support outside the plate rose

In March, the total supply of pulp market increased by 12.85%, and the supply side continued to stabilize, mainly manifested in the recovery of import volume and stable production scheduling of domestic pulp plants, and the trend of pulp price; the total demand increased by 26.69%, the increase of demand for the improvement of terminal demand and the starting load rate of the industry, supporting the pulp price. Under the influence of the double increase of supply and demand, the relationship between supply and demand is expected to improve, supporting the current spot market price, and the high operation of the spot market price has become another driving factor of the external market increase.



Downstream base paper industry profit bias low fluctuations

 Drag off the deal

The improvement of downstream base paper profit is not good, which affects the improvement of the enthusiasm of pulp extraction and restricts the increase of pulp price. Specific to the base paper industry gross margin level (see figure 4), march downstream base paper industry gross margin-3.06% to 21.80% (the highest for cardboard gross margin, but its production cost, so representative relatively low), from last month-1.32% to 1.10 percentage points, for the paper industry, less than 5% of the industry gross margin in low volatility. Zhuochuang Information analysis, the gross profit margin of the downstream base paper industry is low fluctuation, the high increase of broad-leaf pulp and the rapid rise of spot price further affect the base paper market trading, and then affect the enthusiasm of the industry. The pulp market has obvious resistance, which becomes the main factor dragging down the transaction of broad-leaf pulp in March.



In April, the pulp market game situation is not reduced

 Pulp price downward range is limited

 From the perspective of the pulp price itself, the supply and demand of the pulp market continued to game and the cost remained high, but the downstream base paper profit is expected to improve not good. At the same time, under the restriction of the product financial attribute and the external transaction, the pulp price is expected to be limited.


 Total supply is expected to fall by 0.30% month-on-month in April, The main performance is the expected decline of import volume and the individual maintenance plan of domestic pulp plant, Support the pulp price trend; Total demand is expected to fall by 3.41% sequential, The decline of demand is the limited improvement of end demand and the decline of the starting load rate of the industry base paper industry, Bad pulp price, At the same time, the base paper profit improvement expectation is poor, Affect the improvement of the enthusiasm of pulp extraction, Further drag down the pulp price trend; High cost side operation, The increase of the outer disk quotation, Leading to high costs, Support the pulp market bottom price, But the late high price of the actual transaction will also affect the trend of pulp prices; The emotional side remains uncertain, Industry on the Shanghai Futures Exchange pulp futures main contract price afternoon expectations are different, Will continue to affect the pulp price stage trend. The supply chain uncertainties still exist, which are mainly reflected in the uncertainty of foreign pulp factories on the shipment of the Chinese market and the expectation of the release of new production capacity in the later stage, which still have an impact on the trend of pulp price.


 In conclusion, the decline in the spot market price of imported broad-leaf pulp in April is limited, and the support of imported wood pulp remains; the impact of Finnish shutdown on needle pulp, the price difference between coniferous pulp and broad-leaf pulp and the conduction effect of the two further support the outer disk price of broad-leaf pulp. However, due to the rapid rise of the broad leaf pulp outer plate, which affects the profit improvement of the downstream base paper industry, the paper mill's acceptance of the high price outer disk is reduced. At the same time, at the end of the second quarter, Brazil and China 4.15 million tons of broad leaf pulp is expected, which may further affect the trend of the outer plate in April.


The above only considers the impact of fundamentals and uncertain factors on the market, which still depends on the event and the actual impact of the trading strategy of foreign pulp mills on the market. At the same time, the financial attributes of products and the impact of the shutdown on the market can not be underestimated.



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